Tesla’s Triumph Over Sabots and Vandals: A Wall Street Bull Case
I was in Washington, DC the other day, meeting with an active seventy-year-old man. He was telling me that he put his Tesla up for sale due to the backlash against Elon Musk and vandalism against his cars.
You can imagine the vitriole from the DC crowd against Musk after he took away their government-funded sugar teat. While my friend sympathized with their plight, being a retired bureaucrat himself, and despite liking the car, he mostly just wanted to avoid the hassle of being attacked.
His solution was to put a for-sale sign in the window at a price higher than retail, which would give the vandals enough pause to consider whose side he was really on. Then he could hunker down and wait for the whole nonsense to blow over.
Sabots
In the early 19th century, as the Industrial Revolution reshaped economies, European textile workers faced an existential threat: mechanical looms that produced cloth faster and cheaper than human hands. Fearing for their livelihoods, these workers hurled their wooden clogs—sabots—into the machinery, an act of sabotage born of desperation to halt progress.
Yet, the looms kept spinning, and the Industrial Revolution propelled unprecedented wealth creation, transforming markets and societies.
Today, a parallel unfolds with Tesla, Inc. (TSLA), the vanguard of electric vehicles (EVs), autonomous driving, energy storage, and robotics. Modern vandals—activist investors boycotting Tesla over CEO Elon Musk’s polarizing stances, short-sellers exploiting volatility, and consumers trading in vehicles amid competitive pressures—are attempting to clog Tesla’s gears. First-quarter 2025 deliveries fell 13% year-over-year, and the stock has shed 29% year-to-date, eclipsing the S&P 500’s drop of 5.74%. Trade-in volumes for Tesla models are at record highs, fueled by ideological backlash and competition from Chinese automakers.
But just as the sabots failed to stop industrialization, these vandals will not derail Tesla.
From a Wall Street perspective, Tesla’s $9.17 billion market cap and forward P/E of 129x—compared to legacy automakers’ 10x—reflect a growth premium akin to NVIDIA’s during the AI boom.
The company’s challenges are mere noise against its systemic advantages: proprietary AI, vertical integration, and a vision to redefine mobility and energy.
The vandals target symptoms—stock dips, a tough quarter, orange man bad—while Tesla builds a future where productivity, driven by AI and robotics, rivals the Industrial Revolution’s impact.
Wall Street analysts project a 20% revenue CAGR through 2030, outpacing Ford and GM combined, with a $500 billion revenue target spanning EVs, autonomy, energy, and robotics. Here’s why Tesla remains a screaming buy for the next five years.
Electric Vehicle Leadership in a Productive Economy
Tesla dominates the EV market, with Model 3 and Model Y capturing 60% of U.S. EV sales. New Gigafactories in Asia and Europe will scale production to 5 million vehicles annually by 2030, supported by a sub-$30,000 compact model aimed at mass-market adoption.
Global EV penetration is forecast to reach 30% by 2030, and Tesla’s brand strength and AI-optimized supply chains position it to lead. Unlike traditional automakers, Tesla’s projected 30%+ gross margins mirror Apple’s hardware dominance, not GM’s commodity-driven model.
As AI and robotics drive global economic productivity—projected to grow 1.5% annually, per McKinsey—demand for sustainable transport will surge, and Tesla’s scale and efficiency will deliver outsized market share.
Autonomous Driving and Robotaxi Potential
Tesla’s Full Self-Driving (FSD) technology, powered by its Dojo supercomputer and data from millions of vehicles, is nearing unsupervised autonomy in key markets. The Cybercab robotaxi, expected by 2027, could generate $100 billion annually by 2030, tapping a $400 billion autonomous vehicle market. This transforms Tesla into a software-driven platform, akin to Google’s search monopoly or Amazon’s AWS. This is a high-margin, recurring-revenue opportunity, which could double Tesla’s valuation.
Energy Storage for a Renewable Future
Tesla’s energy division, with Megapack and Powerwall, addresses a $50 billion energy storage market by 2030, driven by AI-enhanced grid efficiency and renewable adoption. Automated production and vertical integration, mirroring NVIDIA’s chip manufacturing edge, ensure cost leadership and high margins.
Robotics and AI: A Productivity Paradigm Shift
Tesla’s Optimus humanoid robot, set for production by 2027, leverages FSD’s neural networks to automate tasks in factories, warehouses, and potentially homes. Combined with the “unboxed” manufacturing process and 4680 battery advancements, Optimus could reduce production costs by 30%, echoing Amazon’s logistics revolution. Optimus is not just a factory tool; it’s a new revenue stream, with analysts estimating billions in annual sales by decade’s end. Globally, AI and robotics are poised to deliver the most significant productivity boost since the Industrial Revolution.
Financial Resilience and Market Opportunity
Tesla’s $37 billion cash reserve and $17 billion annual free cash flow will give it the flexibility to fund R&D and expansion. Wall Street is projecting a possible $500 billion in revenue by 2030 across its EVs, autonomy, energy, and robotics sections.
The bet is that Musk will tire of Trump and go back to his company. That alone would tack 15% onto TSLA stock price.
As you can see by the chart the price has hit support, put in a triple bottom and broken above its trend line. The MACD has crossed over below the zero line which is bullish.
If you have a five-year time line you should buy now. If you are cherry picking a trade, wait until it hits the 200-day moving average and drops back a bit and then buy.
This is very likely the last major selloff you will get before AI and robotics create the biggest productivity boost since the Industrial Revolution.
Christian DeHaemer
Outsider Club
